中间选民理论在农民工市民化政策制定中的运用——基武汉市436位农民工的实证研究

The Median Voter Theory is an important theory in the neo-political economics. It can be applied to solve the collective choice paradox and analyze the policy making for the citizenization of peasant workers. Adopting the method of factor analysis, this paper makes an empirical study on peasant workers’ preference for citizenization. We find that there is a paradox of future residence preference and self-identification in peasant workers. On this basis, peasant workers are divided into 5 subgroups, and it is found that the median undecided peasant workers are the median voters. Based on the analysis of the median undecided peasant worker’s complaints and appeals, it is proposed that the country should strengthen the vocational training system, establish a social security system, expand the agricultural reform and promote educational reform to facilitate the citizenization of peasant workers. __________ Translated from Guanli Shijie 맜理世界 (Management World), 2007, (4): 40–67     

Technical analysis as the representation of typical cognitive biases

The present research provides a justification for the popularity of the technical analysis. It finds that financial analysts firmly discriminate between two types of technical signals—those based on typical cognitive biases and “empty” signals that sound like a technical analysis but are without any connotation with psychological inclinations.At the same time that they treat them differently, different analysts rate these items very similarly. These results suggest that the popularity of technical analysis is associated with its relation to the typical cognitive biases of humans.     

Experimental evidence of gender effects in arbitration decisions

The study investigates arbitrator gender and arbitrator-grievant gender effects on the decisions of 146 arbitrators rendered on a hypothetical sexual harassment case. Gender was not found to have a statistically significant effect on the decisions examined. However, other characteristics of the arbitrator—level of experience and level of education—were found to influence the arbitral decision.     

Exploring the boundaries of the framing effect: The moderating roles of disparate expected values and perceived costs of judgmental errors

Framing effects on retail store choice decisions were investigated in four experiments. Subjects preferred the store that guaranteed (a sure option) good prices (experiment 1), product availability (experiment 2), or a rebate (experiment 3) when consequences were framed in terms of gains; subjects preferred the risky option when consequences were framed in terms of losses. Consistent with fuzzy-trace theory, framing effects were reduced when the expected values of options were disparate in a direction that disfavored sure gain or probabilistic loss options (experiment 2) and when the perceived costs of committing a judgmental error were high (experiment 3). Experiment 4 shows that the moderating effects of disparate expected values and costs of judgment errors generalize to within-subject designs.     

Smoking hot portfolios? Trading behavior,investment biases,and self-control failure

Self-control is a personality trait that explains undersaving and nonparticipation decisions. We show that self-control failure also affects trading behavior among individuals on capital markets. We use smoking as the most socially accepted example of self-control failure among 13,644 German brokerage clients and compare the trading behavior of 3,553 smokers and 10,091 nonsmokers. Smokers are associated with a higher portfolio turnover unexplained by financial sophistication or wealth effects. Self-control failure also exacerbates overconfidence, social contagion, sensation seeking, and attention grabbing. Overall, self-control failure is costly because it increases the gap between gross and net returns of smokers relative to nonsmokers.     

Small seeds for grand challenges—Exploring disregarded seeds of change in a foresight process for RTI policy

The recent turn in research, technology and innovation (RTI) policy towards challenge-led strategies is posing new demands to Foresight methodology. RTI Foresight practitioners need to complement their well developed set of technology oriented methods with equally sophisticated approaches tackling societal aspects of innovation. In this paper we aim to make a contribution to this requirement. Building on user innovation theory we argue that demand oriented RTI Foresight needs to systematically integrate voices and hypotheses from the fringes of the innovation system. In order to develop a sound approach for this we set out from well established Foresight theory on “weak signals” and “cognitive biases”. Adopting a constructivist stance towards such signals leads us to the need to set up a socially robust, diverse discourse on “seeds of change hypotheses”. We then outline a practical implementation of such a discourse in the context of the recent Foresight process of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) in Germany. We describe and discuss the experience of this Foresight process and suggest avenues for further development of the approach.     

Political Campaign Advertising: Believe It or Not

SUMMARY

The extent that political advertising in elections is believed by voters' is an important issue for public policy, political marketing, and marketing in general. Much effort and funding is devoted to communicating with voters' during elections via advertising. This study examined political advertising believability and three potential antecedents of believability during an election. The data were gathered via a random sample of voters immediately following an election and the results indicate that believability is influenced by a voters' involvement, perceived control and satisfaction and that party preference plays a key role in believability of competing campaigns.     

Theory-Driven Choice Models

We explore issues in theory-driven choice modeling by focusing on partial-equilibrium models of dynamic structural demand with forward-looking decision-makers, full equilibrium models that integrate the supply side, integration of bounded rationality in dynamic structural models of choice and public policy implications of these models.     

Coveted or Overlooked? The Psychology of Bidding for Comparable Listings in Digital Auctions

This article elaborates on, and provides evidence of the herd behavior bias -- the tendency to gravitate toward, and bid for, auction listings with one or more existing bids, ignoring comparable or even more attractive unbid-for listings available at the same time -- exhibited by buyers in digital auctions. Some listings attract many bidders and become coveted, the center of bidding attention, while other equivalent or even superior listings are overlooked, receiving no bids at all. Empirical analysis using data from digital auctions across different product categories shows that this herd behavior bias is attenuated with increasing bid price, but increases with the difficulty of evaluating quality. The practical implications of these findings, and promising research opportunities in this area are also discussed.     

AID US TO WIN THE ELECTIONS: FOREIGN AID AND VOTER TURNOUT

We use an innovative procedure to determine the effect of foreign aid on institutions of governance. We use voter turnout as an indicator variable which allows us to identify whether political competition in a country is based on private goods, such as vote‐buying, or on public goods. We suggest that the marginal effect of foreign aid on voter turnout depends on the wider underlying institutional setting. Contrary to popular belief, the theoretical model implies that a higher voter turnout in response to foreign aid can be undesirable when the increase is a consequence of vote‐buying in the electoral campaign. The empirical evidence we examine is consistent with private‐goods political competition, i.e., political parties use foreign aid for vote‐buying and similar electoral tactics, particularly when the underlying institutions are sufficiently bad. This is consistently estimated across specifications which address a range of endogeneity sources.